The 5G smartphone market should be analyzed by its three distinctly different segments, says a veteran semiconductor analyst.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：一位經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的半導(dǎo)體分析師表示，5G智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)應(yīng)該分成三個(gè)截然不同的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行分析。
About a dozen market research forecasts predict the number of 5G smartphones will range between half and one billion units by 2023, rising faster than the adoption rate of 4G LTE smartphones. However, 5G devices are best seen segmented into three main segments.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：大約十二個(gè)市場(chǎng)研究預(yù)測(cè)表明，到2023年，5G智能手機(jī)的數(shù)量將在5億到10億個(gè)之間，增長(zhǎng)速度超過(guò)4G LTE智能手機(jī)的采用率。 但是，5G設(shè)備最好分為三個(gè)主要部分。
In the next three-to-five years, the main segment will be for sub-6 GHz handsets, representing an evolution of the 4G telecom standard. Early high volumes will be in the new 3.5-4.5 GHz frequency range.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：在未來(lái)三到五年內(nèi)，主要部分將用于低于6 GHz的手機(jī)，代表了4G電信標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的演變。 早期的高容量將在新的3.5-4.5 GHz頻率范圍內(nèi)。
Sub-6GHz 5G technology is critical since it adds a large frequency spectrum with wide bandwidth to the current heavily saturated 4G and 3G cellular bands, mainly concentrated below the 2.1-GHz frequency. Interestingly, the current 4G technology will continue to evolve and complement sub-6GHz 5G for a variety of reasons I won’t discuss here.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：低于6GHz的5G技術(shù)至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)樗鼮楫?dāng)前嚴(yán)重飽和的4G和3G蜂窩頻段增加了帶寬的大頻譜，主要集中在2.1GHz頻率以下。 有趣的是，目前的4G技術(shù)將繼續(xù)發(fā)展并補(bǔ)充低于6GHz的5G，原因有很多，我在此不再討論。
A second, moredisruptive and revolutionary segment is in millimeter wave (mmwave) 5G, at present mostly at 28 and 39 GHz. The 5G mmwave capability in smartphones will be added on top of sub-6-GHz 5G. By the year 2025, only a third of 5G smartphones will likely have mmwave capability, giving components for the sub-6 segment a 3:1 edge.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：第二個(gè)更具顛覆性和革命性的部分是毫米波（mmwave）5G，目前主要是28和39 GHz。 智能手機(jī)中的5G mmwave功能將添加到6GHz以下的5G之上。 到2025年，只有三分之一的5G智能手機(jī)可能具有mmwave功能，從而為6分段提供3：1的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
到2025年，支持mmwave頻段的手機(jī)將只占5G智能手機(jī)的三分之一。（資料來(lái)源：Petrov Group）
A separate 5G IoT segment addresses data transfer from a very large number of end devices at below gigahertz frequencies. The standards and protocols for 5G IoT are not defined yet, in part because initial optimistic expectations of cellular IoT in 4G have not been met despite big efforts, especially in China.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：?jiǎn)为?dú)的5G IoT段解決了來(lái)自大量低于千兆赫茲頻率的終端設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)傳輸。 5G IoT的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和協(xié)議尚未定義，部分原因是盡管做出了巨大努力，特別是在中國(guó)，對(duì)4G中蜂窩物聯(lián)網(wǎng)的初步樂(lè)觀預(yù)期尚未得到滿足。
It’s important to note that in the next few years many smartphones will claim to have 5G capabilities that a network operator can enable with a simple software upgrade of its network. However, the sub-6-GHz and mmwave segments are distinct and significant for several reasons, including regional differences, potential for supply chain disruption and for positioning of smartphone and infrastructure vendors.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：值得注意的是，在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)，許多智能手機(jī)將擁有5G功能，網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商可通過(guò)簡(jiǎn)單的網(wǎng)絡(luò)軟件升級(jí)實(shí)現(xiàn)這些功能。 然而，由于若干原因，包括區(qū)域差異，供應(yīng)鏈中斷的可能性以及智能手機(jī)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施供應(yīng)商的定位，6 GHz以下和mmwave分段具有獨(dú)特性和重要性。
In the near term mmwave 5G is important primarily in the U.S. market, as well as in the much smaller Japan and South Korea markets. It is aggressively promoted by network operators who pushed for municipal installation permits for base stations in a less time consuming and less expensive manner.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：在短期內(nèi)，mmwave 5G主要在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)以及規(guī)模小得多的日本和韓國(guó)市場(chǎng)中占有重要地位。 它由網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商積極推動(dòng)，他們以更少的時(shí)間和更便宜的方式推動(dòng)基站的市政安裝許可。
Actual use cases for mmwave 5G are somewhat unconvincing and uncertain due to cost and performance challenges. The much larger sub-6GHz market is expected to blossom in Asia, mostly in China. Thus, it could be dominated by Huawei’s wireless infrastructure equipment.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：由于成本和性能方面的挑戰(zhàn)，mmwave 5G的實(shí)際使用情況有些令人難以置信且不確定。 預(yù)計(jì)亞洲6GHz以上的市場(chǎng)將大幅增長(zhǎng)，主要是在中國(guó)。 因此，它可能由華為的無(wú)線基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施設(shè)備主導(dǎo)。
The two segments are significantly different in their likely effect on supply chains in RF front end (RFFE) modules. The sub-6GHz segment likely will extend the current dominance of RFFE module vendors Broadcom, Skyworks, Qorvo, Murata and the more recent fabless entrant, Qualcomm.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：這兩個(gè)部分在RF前端（RFFE）模塊中對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈可能的影響方面存在顯著差異。 低于6GHz的市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大RFFE模塊供應(yīng)商Broadcom，Skyworks，Qorvo，Murata以及最近的無(wú)晶圓廠進(jìn)入者高通公司的主導(dǎo)地位。
The mmwave segment brings challenges in cost, low power, new materials, packaging, and testing. In particular, mmwave transmitters need to be very close to antenna arrays, preferably in the same system-in-package. Thus, they are likely to disrupt the established supply chain, giving an advantage to modem suppliers such as Qualcomm, Samsung, HiSilicon, MediaTek, and Unisoc.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：mmwave一定程度上帶來(lái)了成本，低功耗，新材料，封裝和測(cè)試方面的挑戰(zhàn)。 特別是，mmwave發(fā)射器需要非常靠近天線陣列，最好是在相同的系統(tǒng)級(jí)封裝中。 因此，它們可能會(huì)擾亂已建立的供應(yīng)鏈，從而為高通，三星，海思，聯(lián)發(fā)科和Unisoc等現(xiàn)代供應(yīng)商帶來(lái)機(jī)遇。
Huawei/HiSilicon is effectively prevented from competing in the U.S. 5G market today. That’s giving Samsung a big incentive to compete in 5G segments against Apple and its supplier Qualcomm.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：今天，華為/海思半導(dǎo)體無(wú)法在美國(guó)5G市場(chǎng)上有效地競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。 這給三星帶來(lái)了與蘋(píng)果及其供應(yīng)商高通公司競(jìng)爭(zhēng)5G領(lǐng)域的巨大動(dòng)力。
A high priority for Samsung is to build up its volumes in foundry wafers as well as IC packages (note its investments in panel-level fan-out capability) in order to compete against TSMC. Samsung already has reclassified support of its smartphone group as part of its foundry business.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：三星的首要任務(wù)是在代工晶圓和集成電路封裝（注意其在面板級(jí)扇出能力方面的投資）上增加產(chǎn)量，以與臺(tái)積電競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。三星已經(jīng)將其智能手機(jī)集團(tuán)的支持重新歸類(lèi)為其代工業(yè)務(wù)的一部分。
Samsung also stated a goal to become the third largest global supplier of wireless infrastructure equipment. In the next few years, it will be very active in achieving its corporate strategy goals.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：三星還宣布了要成為全球第三大無(wú)線基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施供應(yīng)商的目標(biāo)。 在未來(lái)幾年，它將非常積極地實(shí)現(xiàn)其企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)。
Overall, market segmentation for 5G smartphones will continue to evolve. And 5G has major implications beyond smartphones for a large number of other markets and industries.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：總體而言，5G智能手機(jī)的市場(chǎng)細(xì)分將會(huì)繼續(xù)發(fā)展。 對(duì)于其他市場(chǎng)和行業(yè)而言，在智能手機(jī)之外5G具有重大意義。
-Boris Petrov is managing partner of the Petrov Group. He spent the last ten years leading market intelligence and strategic marketing at the SCL/JCET group and previously held positions at Intel, Zilog, Siemens, McKinsey, Boston Consulting, and Booz-Allen.
機(jī)器翻譯（僅供參考）：-Boris Petrov是Petrov集團(tuán)的管理合伙人。 最近十年，他在SCL / JCET集團(tuán)擔(dān)任市場(chǎng)情報(bào)和戰(zhàn)略營(yíng)銷(xiāo)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。此前曾在英特爾，Zilog，西門(mén)子，麥肯錫，波士頓咨詢(xún)公司和Booz-Allen擔(dān)任過(guò)職務(wù)。